New Years Forecast
It’s time for one last post to wrap up 2010 here at WeatherWill. It’s been a great first year “in business” and I look forward to continuing this project in 2011. Since my first post on January 22nd, WeatherWill his seen over 10,000 visitors! (So even though most of you haven’t signed my guestbook, I know you’re there! Ha.)
New Years Eve in North Mississippi
Despite seeing a white Christmas less than a week ago, we will experience above average temperatures as we end 2010. On average, Tupelo is at 51 degrees this time of year, but, with the help of southerly winds, we will see temperatures reach the uppers 60s on Friday. Unfortunately, it will not be the prettiest of days. Look for mainly overcast skies with rain beginning in the afternoon. The strongest (and most widespread) thunderstorms won’t come until Friday evening. High winds will be the main threat, but we will also see some heavy rainfall and even the possibility for an isolated tornado; therefore, it’s not at all out of the question for severe weather tomorrow evening/night. I would recommend having those New Year Countdown parties inside!
Rain chances will linger around for Saturday morning, but most places will stay dry after noon. With northwesterly winds, high temperatures will drop to the upper 50s. However, we will get to see more sun than on Friday. Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday look to stay rain-free, and we will get to see a good deal of sunshine. Daytime highs will range from the upper 40s to mid-50s, respectively.
Gator Bowl in Jacksonville
Heading to Jacksonville to watch the Mississippi State Bulldogs take on Michigan? I’m heading out in a few hours! It looks like those of us that will be on the East Coast will have better luck at missing the rain on New Year’s Eve. After some morning fog, high temperatures will reach the lower 70s under mostly sunny skies. Cloud cover will be more prevalent on Saturday, but highs will be a touch warmer: lower to mid 70s.
After again seeing some fog Saturday morning, it does appear that we will stay dry during game time. There is a slight chance for rain later in the night, though. Cloud cover will build in Saturday evening leading to mostly cloudy skies for Sunday, and as of now, rain for Sunday looks to be isolated. Daytime high will be closer to 70s degrees.
GO DAWGS!!!
Grandparents' Backyard on Christmas Day (Pontotoc)
Grandparents' Front Yard on Christmas Day (Pontotoc)
Fickle December
Fountain in my grandparents' backyard.
For a while it may have seemed like it would be another southern December wearing shorts and flip-flops. The average high temperature for the first four days of the month in Tupelo was 59 degrees! We reached 65 on the fourth.
Canada has been kind enough to lend us some cold air, though, so morning lows between December 6th and 14th were mostly in the middle 20s and even teens! We even got to see a few snow flurries on Sunday, the 12th. It wasn’t enough to build a snow man, but I suppose many of us will take what we can get! High temperatures that day were in the middle 40s, so the snow just refused to stick around. (Pun intended.) But we did plummet to 14 degrees on on the 14th. And that led us to the 15th….
The picture to the left is from my grandparents’ backyard. Morning lows around the freezing mark allowed for the fallen precipitation to freeze. (Hence the term freezing rain.) Many kids woke up to school being cancelled on the 15th due to the weather conditions–and for good reason. Several bridges were iced over causing numerous wrecks around North Mississippi and Alabama. A few people also told me about family members falling while going outside, resulting in a couple of trips to the hospital. Highs on the 15th and 16th actually got back up to 59 and 60 degrees, respectively, so any icy patches soon melted.
It’s often said that if you don’t like the weather in this area, stick around for a little while. That holds true to this coming week as we will be on a warming trend. High pressure will remain over our area tomorrow, allowing daytime highs to reach the upper 40s. As it moves off to the east, we will see temperatures hit the middle 50s on Monday to even lower 60s on Tuesday! Just for some perspective, the average high for this time of year is around 42 degrees.
Rain chances do come into play as a cold front comes through the Southeast on Tuesday. Morning lows will be in the mid 40s, so there is no chance of another freezing rain event! As high pressure builds back in on Wednesday, we will see cooler temperatures–upper 40s to lower 50s–through the end of the work week. We will contend with some more chances for rain Friday as a warm front heads our way. However, a strong cold front will follow behind it sometime between Friday afternoon and Saturday. Though it’s still a week away, it’s not out of the question to forecast some snow flurries Christmas Eve or Day, as daytime highs do not look to budge out of the 40s. (And I think that’s being generous!)
Starkville Severe Weather
Damage on Hwy 12
Monday night into Tuesday of this week, severe weather was experienced across a large portion of Mississippi. In all, there were 12 tornadoes. Unfortunately, Yazoo County saw two of those. (Remember the tornado outbreak back in April?) I was following this system on RADAR as it was unfolding, and it really didn’t look overly impressive for tornadoes; however, an EF2 did drop on Starkville at 11:08 PM. The strength was determined based on destruction at The Pines, a mobile home park. (Did you know that EF2 is the highest rating that can be given to a tornado based on mobile home damage?) (The Pines is actually about one mile from where I lived last year.) It was on the ground for appoximately 1.5 miles with wind speeds estimated to be at 115 mph. Unfortunately, 15 people were injured.
Damage at The Pines
I took Highway 12 to school the next morning and saw a traffic light blown down, some business signs twisted, and a gas station’s roof mangled. At that point, I wasn’t convinced it was from a tornado, as straight line winds can do that kind of damage. However, after class I drove out to The Pines and saw the destruction at the mobile home park. Even though it hasn’t been the case the past few years, November is Mississippi’s third most active month for tornadoes.
Here is the write-up from the Jackson NWS with some more pictures.
The week before Thanksgiving, I was able to do severe weather coverage in my Practicum class at school. It was an archived event when a tornado went through MUW, but it still felt real while I was up there. I really became intrigued by severe weather when I went storm chasing for two weeks during May and was able to see five tornadoes. I look forward to being able to provide severe weather coverage for this area one day.
PSA
Too many times I have heard, “Being a weatherman is the only job you can have where you can be wrong and still get paid for it!” This statement really burns me up.
The atmosphere exists all over the world. What is going on thousands of miles away can have a significant impact on weather at another point. (Teleconnections) Fortunately, atmospheric setups can be similar, and meteorologists learn from the past. However, there is another problem when it comes to forecasting: the atmosphere is always in motion! It has been since creation of Earth and will continue to be for eternity. (Or until Global Warming puts an end to things.) (By all means, that was a joke. Don’t get me started on that subject.)
When meteorologists make forecasts, they are often looking at still images—a snapshot of what’s going on at some time. They then have to make a projection—or forecast—of what will happen an hour from then, a day from then, seven to ten days from then! If you take a picture of your cousin whom you see once a year and are asked to draw a picture of what you think he or she will look like a year from then, you can probably get reasonably close. What if I ask you to draw a picture of that person 5 years from then? The drawing will not be as accurate. Sure, you can make assumptions based on how your cousin has already aged. You can also get an idea by seeing what side of the family that person takes after. In a way, this is what meteorologists are asked to do. Please, read on.
If I have a snapshot the size of the United States (synoptic scale) of what the atmosphere looks like, I might see that our next weather system is centered over Nevada and Utah. My boss then expects me to project what will happen for the next seven days. By all means, I can have a decent idea of what will occur, as big weather systems typically have a similar genesis (instability, uplift, moisture, etc). Additionally, knowing patterns helps—specifically, troughs and ridges. By looking at the amplitude and tilt of those features, I may recognize another weather system the one in this examples favors. What impacts did the previous system have on the Southeast? (For the purposes of this example, I am writing to the same audience my webcasts are geared towards.)
Okay, so now you have an idea of what the next big weather system is capable of…but when will it happen? Well isn’t that the million dollar question. And yes, that is what TV weathermen get paid to answer. While you can recognize patterns, there will NEVER be the same setup. As mentioned above, weather across the world can impact our weather. The atmosphere is like one big fluid. As a matter of fact, we take several Calculus, Differential Equations, and Physics classes to help us understand the fluid and project what will happen. As also mentioned above, though, the atmosphere is always changing. By the time we are confident in what will happen for Day 1 or 2, the atmosphere has changed again. That is why you can’t put much stock in extended forecasts. I have had one professor (who is also the state climatologist) who says forecasts beyond three days are magic. Basically, the atmosphere is one big variable.
Now you ask me about percents? Oh dear. I will refrain from posting a dissertation, but I do have a brief soapbox. When you see a 7-Day forecast on the news that has percents for rain, what do you think that means? There is a 70% chance it will rain where you are? There is a 70% chance someone in the TV station’s viewing area will see rain? There is a 30% chance no one will see rain? As you can see, percentages are interpreted differently by many people. What is the answer? Got me! Many people don’t understand that meteorologists can’t forecast for a bucket. Regions, yes. Instead, words such as isolated, scattered, widespread, etc. should be used. On a day with isolated showers, it is impossible to tell you if it is going to rain in your backyard. There are just too many variables to consider. And once they are, it is time to REconsider, as they have, yet again, changed. (For meteorologists reading this, it’s also very useful to post AM, PM, afternoon, mid-morning, etc.) So if you want to know if it’s going to rain in your backyard but not your neighbors on a day with a 30% chance of rain, get out your Magic 8 ball.
Lastly, the information we look at is extremely limited in the scope of things. For many computer models of what the atmosphere looks like, we get that information four times a day. Those satellites are miles overhead! Resolution at the surface–though increasing–isn’t the best. National Weather Service offices also launch balloons that get readings for different levels of the atmosphere. This is extremely beneficial! The pitfall? Those are launched twice a day—maybe another time or two if the weather is particularly active. Furthermore, locations where balloons are launched are few and far between. (Jackson is the only NWS office in Mississippi!)
Now we are not going into this blindly. While timing is often very difficult, we learn more and more by every missed (or made) forecast. The part about the atmosphere always moving and not always doing what it’s “supposed” to do…well, can’t really help that. We do have an amazing forecasting teacher at Mississippi State (Doug Gilham). Furthermore, we practice forecasting for locations all over the United States for two-week periods to learn impacts of mountains, lakes, different climate zones, etc. I promise, TV weather people are not getting paid to be wrong. Missing a forecast looks bad on the meteorologist, management, the TV station, etc. I don’t know of anyone who likes to be wrong.
So please, the next time you hear someone talk poorly of meteorologists, please repeat this brief diatribe.
This video (and therefore essay) is a project for my Advanced TV Production class.
This essay, in whole or part, may not be replicated in any way without prior consent from its author, Will Simmons. Please send any inquiries about using this material to will@weatherwill.com
Hot Weekend and Symposium!
Dry air this weekend will allow us to heat up into the middle 90s with mostly sunny skies over the next several days! Fortunately, we won’t have a lot of moisture mixing with those high temps making it feel even hotter. Below is my webcast from this week in Practicum III. Below that is a MUST READ about this weekend.
Since February I have been organizing and planning for the 2010 Southeast Severe Storms Symposium at Mississippi State. It is a two day event that is put on by us Geoscience students every year. Day 1 is geared toward broadcast meteorology and Day 2 is focused on operational. I was selected as Symposium Coordinator and have been in charge of inviting guest speakers for the broadcast portion of the workshop. (That’s kind of a big deal!) I have guests coming in from all over the United States and am very excited about the line-up. ‘Lots of wisdom and experience!! On Saturday, we students will get a chance to have our work reviewed/critiqued by those already in the broadcast field. That kind of help in extremely beneficial! There will also be a mixer Friday night where we students can mingle with the presenters in a more relaxed atmosphere.
I have also been in charge or booking the Symposium location, reserving hotel rooms, helping select flights for guests, constantly sending emails, etc. It has been a lot of work, but it is extremely rewarding. I am so excited about what will be going on over the next couple of days! I even get to chair the broadcast day!! (I get to introduce the speakers by telling where they’re from, topic, name, and so on. I might have to throw in a few one-liners, too! Ha.) I am sure I will make a post after it is over, so stay tuned for that!
Click here for the Broadcast Agenda.
Click here for the Operational Agenda.
Don’t forget to sign my guest book!!
Hot and Dry Continue
This is a view from the roof of WCBI. Look for similar sky conditions throughout the day.
We are still under the influence of a heat ridge that is allowing temperatures to rise well into the 90s. Humidity is down a hair from yesterday, but heat indices will still average over 100 degrees. Fittingly, many counties are under a heat advisory until Friday evening.
Expect mostly sunny skies today with a south breeze about 5-10 mph. Overnight lows look to bottom out in the middle 70s–giving some relief from the daytime heat.
As today looks to be a degree or two warmer than yesterday, Friday is shaping up to be a notch hotter than today. It ‘s not out of the question to say that some thermometers may read 100 degrees tomorrow.
Even though Saturday is the official start to the “Dog Days” of summer, daytime highs should drop into the middle 90s beginning Sunday. We are monitoring a tropical wave that is making its way towards the Gulf of Mexico. As it approaches, cloud cover looks to increase as well as rain chances for the beginning of next week.
I will be the fill-in meteorologist today for the noon show (Midday) at WCBI as well as every day next week. Be sure to tune into CBS at 12 o’clock to see your favorite weatherman (me)!
“On the road again, I just can’t wait to get on…”
Me at Mt. Rushmore in South Dakota...Click to Enlarge.
Since I last posted about the Faith tornado, we have been doing a lot of traveling and touristy things. After spending the night in Hill City, we went to Custard State Park in the Badlands of South Dakota and were able to drive up some pretty steep, winding terrain…with no guard rails, might I add. It really is beautiful country here. We then drove through some wildlife place and were able to see numerous pronghorns, buffalo, and a mountain goat. We then stopped by the adjacent Mt. Rushmore. Very impressive! After that excursion we went to the town of Wall, SD. Coming in at 76,000 square feet, Wall Drug is the largest drug store in America…or something like. We spent an hour looking around! I have even eaten a buffalo burger while in South Dakota. It was pretty tasty! Oh, we also drove through Sturgis one time!
Overall, I have a love/hate kind of thing going on with South Dakota. I hate it because cell phone service there (at least on AT&T’s part) is terrible. But it is very scenic. Pros and cons…as with most places.
Yesterday we left South Dakota, went through Nebraska, Colorado, and then ended in Goodland, Kansas. I think it’s funny how I can spend multiple hours in a car now and not really be affected by it. All ten of us still get along well. We play games, talk, joke, etc. The time really passes by quickly. Our intentions that day were to just drive to Kansas, but we did detour a bit to check out a storm that was producing some hail. And that night I took a break from everything–watched some basketball and then made it to the hot tub!
Buffalo at Custard State Park in South Dakota...Click to Enlarge.
Today we trekked form Kansas to Amarillo…watching Shawshank Redemption along the way! That is my all-time favorite movie. If you want to win me over, you should buy it for me. That and Air Force One. It’s a top 5. We watched another movie, but it doesn’t need to be mentioned because it will take away from Shawshank 
And tonight we had a guy on the trip, David, eat The Big Texan…a 72 ounce steak, salad, shrimp, potato, and a roll. Okay, so he attempted to eat it. If you finish in an hour the meal is free. He got pretty close, but the time limit was too stringent for him. He said he could’ve finished if he would’ve had more time…and I believe him. It was actually streaming live at bigtexan.com for all to see! I let many friends and family know about it!
David about to indulge in a 72oz steak and a few side items. Click to enlarge.
We got back to the hotel and all gathered and watched a video Dr. Brown put together of the trip. It was nice to see all of the things we have done and seen over the past couple of weeks. I have learned so much and become even better friends with all of these people. I really don’t want it to end. I have found a new fascination with severe weather!
Tomorrow the plan is to drive to Oklahoma City. I am not really sure what we will do when there. Renny and Mike are meeting up with other students (in a distance learning program) with another round of storm chasing. And we eight students from State will be going home Saturday.
I plan to post a video of the trip and write one more post. And next week, I should be getting back to providing North Mississippi with forecasts!
Faith, South Dakota Tornado
Tornado and Me = Raw Power. Click to enlarge.
WOW!!!! We are the luckiest group of storm chasers there has ever been. Last year, the team saw one tornado. We have had multiple days where we have seen more than one tornado! Today was no exception. It is really late, so I’ll write a narrative about it later as well as post a video. (I’ve have been working on my Facebook album and sending in pictures and videos to The Weather Channel. Look for them tomorrow sometime between morning and lunch, probably. Ha. I know that’s broad, but that’s the best I can do.)
Until then, check out the professors’ website. You can read a blog post about the day like I normally write, watch a video Dr. Brown made, and also track our location on the right! Pretty neat stuff. Check it out!!
And if you haven’t seen it already, here is a public link to my Facebook album.
We will be at Mt. Rushmore tomorrow, so expect pictures from that later!
This tornado had some awesome rotation. Click to enlarge.
This is called a stovepipe tornado...for obvious reasons. Click to enlarge.
Oklahoma Was Good To Us
Driving from TX to OK, we passed by the largest free-standing cross in the Western Hemisphere in Groom, TX.
Wednesday was focused on for a few days preceding it, so I wrote down a lot of notes in our morning briefing. We decided to head to West Oklahoma from Amarillo (where we were) to catch storms around the triple point..where the low pressure center and dry line and warm front intersect. Storms can kind of ride down the warm front after they develop. It was cool driving east because it was really clear and crisp behind us and hazy infront; you can really experience the dry line!! We also drove through Groom, Texas, home of the largest free-standing cross in the Western Hemisphere as well as the famous leaning water tower! You can check it out in my album.
We stopped in Clinton, Oklahoma for lunch and then found a park to wait in while storms developed. (I realized today that my frisbee is still there :’-/ ) Someone was watching the radar and monitoring Storm Prediction Center the whole time we were at the park. A tornado watch for a large portion of Oklahoma was issued at 2:05 and they also stated a probability of over 95% that there would be two or more tornadoes. About 2:30, we started heading north around Leedey and Taloga.
On our way, we passed by the Tornado Intercept Vehicle that you may have seen on the Discovery Channel. I’ve been spoiled the past 5 days or so…. I quickly learned that on high risk days, chasers are out in full force: National organizations, schools, tours, Vortex 2, hobbyists, etc. The roads were packed.
This is the first tornado we saw. You can see the top half about the middle right of the picture. It's hard to see the bottom half, but you could see a dust cloud at the ground. Tornado.
Around 3:28, Renny suddenly yelled out, “tornado!” We quickly pulled over, and sure enough, there was a funnel extending towards the surface. It was very hard to see condensation close to the ground, but it was there. And it quickly dissipated. Overall, the storm was moving east about 20 mph. As of 3:45, 4 tornadoes had already been reported by spotters. I was getting excited that the day was just getting started!
The storm we were on seemed to get disorganized as another “got in the way.” However, it did ingest it, and at 4:53ish, hail of 3.5 inches was reported…that’s baseball size! We played around with the idea of going northeast to get on another storm, but Dr. Brown made the call to turn around. And not too soon after that… Renny again yelled out, “tornado!” We were all fortunate to see it when we did. It was very rain-wrapped. (This was around 6 o’clock, according to my watch, but I think it was recorded as 5:50.) We pulled over on the side of the road to take a couple of pictures. (The tornado was to our left because we were heading south…coming back from the storm we were going to get on. We were looking right into the hook.) However, we only got about 10-15 seconds of picture time as the tornado was quickly approaching us.
We were really close to this tornado in Dover. Rain-wrapped. Very dangerous. (Ignore the semi-circle at the top right.)
I just remember Renny saying, “Go, go, go! We need to go!” Dr. Mike Brown, our driver, hadn’t seen the tornado so he didn’t know how close it was. But it really snuck up on us due to all of the precip falling around. We were speeding away and the tornado seemed to follow us. It was moving at a good pace and seemed to be getting closer. Renny estimated about 100-200 yards. In hindsight, it was probably about a quarter of a mile away. Still very dangerous. And at the time, we had no idea what kind of vertical extent it had. After looking at some video shot by a helicopter, it was MASSIVE! I believe I heard it was a couple of hundred yards wide at the top…but it’s been a long day and that may be a little skewed. As we continued to drive, rain and hail began to fall on us. We were speeding, a tornado was drawing near, the hail falling made loud clanks on our van….probably the most amazing, adrenaline-filled experience I have ever experienced.
There were still plenty of chasers behind us as well as a guy OUT of his car putting in gas. Okay, that’s his own fault for going out tornado hunting with an empty tank of gas. But I am sure not everyone had the narrow escape we did. A few minutes later we saw cop cars with their lights flashing, heading that direction.
Me showing my strength by holding up the cloud layers.
We got going east so we could stay infront of the storm. It was unbelievable how many cars were out. Traffic was backed up for a long way on those two-lane roads, and everyone was, of course, wanting to go the same direction. As we continued to head east, the geography became very unfavorable. It was very hilly country and lined with trees. This is why chasing in Mississippi (the Delta is exempt) is terrible. …so we decide to call it a day. A very profitable day, at that. We pulled over once more to take some pictures of a shelf cloud and just the overall structure of the remnants of the storm. I got some cool images. We had a nice meal at Cracker Barrel and then continued to Oklahoma City for the night.
As always, you can check out the MSU website to track out location and see the professors’ posts.
Here is the link to my Facebook album from Wednesday’s chasing. By the way, the close tornado we saw was in Dover, Kingfisher County. Here is a video.
Good job at reading all of the way through this!
Quick sidenote: If you have watched The Weather Channel at all, you have heard them talking about Vortex 2. You have probably also heard them saying they are tired of everyone being out there ruining their chase and research studies and that everyone is messing up their stuff. I need to go on a quick tangent about this. They have an armada of about 60 vehicles. What do they think that they can get everyone circled around a tornado to collect data? And even if they do, they have people in this experiment from all over the country. How are they going to collaborate anyways? And maybe they are just upset that they seem to not be in the right places to see tornadoes…. Maybe they are upset that the hoi polloi can do everything they can… if not better. We don’t need research grants and fancy radars and all kinds of equipment. Having all of that will not guarantee your spot to view a tornado. I think their feelings got hurt Wednesday and they are taking it out on the other people around. Don’t get me wrong, obtaining data that can save people’s lives is invaluable and much needed! I am all for that. But I am getting school credit for this and learning so much. I have learned more on this trip already than sitting for weeks in a formal classroom setting. So don’t hate on the “little guy”- the people that aren’t followed by national TV and have a plethora of monies. (I will say I was frustrated, too, at the traffic. I do wish some of the weather enthusiasts would stay at home. But they do have rights to be there, so I won’t throw fits about it like Vortex 2. Okay, I’ll stop there.
Kingfisher, OK Tornado
http://i45.tinypic.com/2u6dx92.jpg Picture of the tornado from yesterday taken by Renny Vandewege (one of my professors)
Yesterday was another profitable day of chasing! We saw two tornadoes, one with multiple vortices. I thought today would be an “off day” in Oklahoma City, but we are heading out in a few minutes for Colorado to put us in postion to chase tomorrow. We got to the hotel late last night, so I didn’t upload yesterday’s tornado pictures, and it will be tonight before I get to. Until then, you can entertain yourself by…
looking at the MSU Storm Chase website where you can see video from and read about yesterday as well as track our location.
Here is video from The Weather Channel of the tornado: http://www.weather.com/outlook/videos/oklahoma-tornado-on-the-ground-17355#17350 If you can see a white van at the very bottom of the tornado, that is us!! Ha. We were about a quarter of a mile away at one point.
and also http://www.weather.com/outlook/videos/oklahoma-tornado-on-the-ground-17355
I don’t have time to proof this… ‘Sorry if there are any errors.
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