PSA

Too many times I have heard, “Being a weatherman is the only job you can have where you can be wrong and still get paid for it!” This statement really burns me up.

The atmosphere exists all over the world. What is going on thousands of miles away can have a significant impact on weather at another point. (Teleconnections) Fortunately, atmospheric setups can be similar, and meteorologists learn from the past. However, there is another problem when it comes to forecasting: the atmosphere is always in motion! It has been since creation of Earth and will continue to be for eternity. (Or until Global Warming puts an end to things.) (By all means, that was a joke. Don’t get me started on that subject.)

When meteorologists make forecasts, they are often looking at still images—a snapshot of what’s going on at some time. They then have to make a projection—or forecast—of what will happen an hour from then, a day from then, seven to ten days from then! If you take a picture of your cousin whom you see once a year and are asked to draw a picture of what you think he or she will look like a year from then, you can probably get reasonably close. What if I ask you to draw a picture of that person 5 years from then? The drawing will not be as accurate. Sure, you can make assumptions based on how your cousin has already aged. You can also get an idea by seeing what side of the family that person takes after. In a way, this is what meteorologists are asked to do. Please, read on.

If I have a snapshot the size of the United States (synoptic scale) of what the atmosphere looks like, I might see that our next weather system is centered over Nevada and Utah. My boss then expects me to project what will happen for the next seven days. By all means, I can have a decent idea of what will occur, as big weather systems typically have a similar genesis (instability, uplift, moisture, etc). Additionally, knowing patterns helps—specifically, troughs and ridges. By looking at the amplitude and tilt of those features, I may recognize another weather system the one in this examples favors. What impacts did the previous system have on the Southeast? (For the purposes of this example, I am writing to the same audience my webcasts are geared towards.)

Okay, so now you have an idea of what the next big weather system is capable of…but when will it happen? Well isn’t that the million dollar question. And yes, that is what TV weathermen get paid to answer. While you can recognize patterns, there will NEVER be the same setup. As mentioned above, weather across the world can impact our weather. The atmosphere is like one big fluid. As a matter of fact, we take several Calculus, Differential Equations, and Physics classes to help us understand the fluid and project what will happen. As also mentioned above, though, the atmosphere is always changing. By the time we are confident in what will happen for Day 1 or 2, the atmosphere has changed again. That is why you can’t put much stock in extended forecasts. I have had one professor (who is also the state climatologist) who says forecasts beyond three days are magic. Basically, the atmosphere is one big variable.

Now you ask me about percents? Oh dear. I will refrain from posting a dissertation, but I do have a brief soapbox. When you see a 7-Day forecast on the news that has percents for rain, what do you think that means? There is a 70% chance it will rain where you are? There is a 70% chance someone in the TV station’s viewing area will see rain? There is a 30% chance no one will see rain? As you can see, percentages are interpreted differently by many people. What is the answer? Got me! Many people don’t understand that meteorologists can’t forecast for a bucket. Regions, yes. Instead, words such as isolated, scattered, widespread, etc. should be used. On a day with isolated showers, it is impossible to tell you if it is going to rain in your backyard. There are just too many variables to consider. And once they are, it is time to REconsider, as they have, yet again, changed. (For meteorologists reading this, it’s also very useful to post AM, PM, afternoon, mid-morning, etc.) So if you want to know if it’s going to rain in your backyard but not your neighbors on a day with a 30% chance of rain, get out your Magic 8 ball.

Lastly, the information we look at is extremely limited in the scope of things. For many computer models of what the atmosphere looks like, we get that information four times a day. Those satellites are miles overhead! Resolution at the surface–though increasing–isn’t the best. National Weather Service offices also launch balloons that get readings for different levels of the atmosphere. This is extremely beneficial! The pitfall? Those are launched twice a day—maybe another time or two if the weather is particularly active. Furthermore, locations where balloons are launched are few and far between. (Jackson is the only NWS office in Mississippi!)

Now we are not going into this blindly. While timing is often very difficult, we learn more and more by every missed (or made) forecast. The part about the atmosphere always moving and not always doing what it’s “supposed” to do…well, can’t really help that. We do have an amazing forecasting teacher at Mississippi State (Doug Gilham). Furthermore, we practice forecasting for locations all over the United States for two-week periods to learn impacts of mountains, lakes, different climate zones, etc. I promise, TV weather people are not getting paid to be wrong. Missing a forecast looks bad on the meteorologist, management, the TV station, etc. I don’t know of anyone who likes to be wrong.

So please, the next time you hear someone talk poorly of meteorologists, please repeat this brief diatribe.

This video (and therefore essay) is a project for my Advanced TV Production class.

This essay, in whole or part, may not be replicated in any way without prior consent from its author, Will Simmons. Please send any inquiries about using this material to will@weatherwill.com